Моделювання вторинного радіоактивного забруднення повітря в Україні внаслідок вітрового під-йому радіонуклідів.

Abstract

The paper presents the results of the simulation of secondary air pollution scenario in Ukraine due to the wind lift of anthropogenic radionuclides during a dust storm in April 2020. A variant of the Bagnold formula was used to parameterize the intensity of radionuclide resuspension. To set the initial pollution of the territory of Ukraine, the reconstruction of meteorological conditions and fallout of Cs-137 after the disaster at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was carried out through the use of the RODOS nuclear emergency response system and the WRF meteorological model. For the normalized root-mean-square error of the calculated total fallout in the 50-km zone around the Chernobyl NPP the value NMSE=4,5 was obtained. A decrease in the levels of pollution of the Earth's surface during the time after the accident due to radioactive decay and other environmental processes was estimated. The distribution of contamination of the Earth's surface obtained in this way was used to assess the intensity of wind rise and atmospheric transport of radionuclides during a dust storm on April 16–18, 2020. The calculations were carried out using the CALPUFF model. The input meteorological data were the results of the WRF-Ukraine weather forecasting system. In the calculation of secondary contamination, the effect of fires in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone (ChEZ) was not taken into account. The calculated average daily concentrations of Cs-137 in the air were maximum for the first day of the dust storm (April 16), when the wind speed was maximum (13 m/s with gusts up to 19 m/s). Average daily concentrations on April 16 ranged from the background values (5,8·10-6 Bq/m3 in Kyiv) to 2,2·10-3 Bq/m3 (ChNPP). The obtained estimates are much less than the permissible concentrations (0.8 Bq/m3). At the same time consideravle exceedance of background values were predicted in a large part of Ukraine – from Rivne NPP (2,2·10-5 Bq/m3) to Kharkiv (1,3·10-5 Bq / m3). In the vicinity of the ChEZ in the cities of Chernihiv and Slavutich, the obtained estimates of daily average concentration were 1,6·10-4 Bq/m3 and 3,2·10-4 Bq/m3 respectively.