Модель контролю та оцінки ризику зовнішньоекономічної безпеки національних економік в умовах світових криз

Abstract

The aim of the research work is to form a model of control and risk assessment of foreign economic security (FES) of national economies in the conditions of global crises. Its implementation will make it possible to take into account the likely future threats of FES in time and introduce effective mechanisms for their extinguishing or reduction in the present time to form an optimal trajectory for the development of foreign economic relations. The article substantiates that as the forecast values of FES indicators for the formation of a model of control and risk assessment of FES of national economies, it is advisable to include the following indicators: the level of openness of the economy; import export coverage ratio; growth rates of exports and imports; the share of imports in domestic consumption of the country; level of unemployment. As a method of forecasting the FES indicators, it is proposed to use a consensus forecast based on the principle of calculating the median values of indicators based on expert assessments by macroeconomic analysis and forecasting specialists. The practical implementation of the model of control and risk assessment of the FES of national economies was carried out on the example of the Ukrainian economy as one that is subject to the strong influence of crisis phenomena that cause a complex of threats to the FES. The projected level of FES risk for Ukraine according to a pessimistic and probable estimate is dangerously high, according to an optimistic one – high. This means the presence of a destabilizing negative impact of the crisis occurrences on the foreign economic activity of the national economy and a significant decrease in its functionality. To ensure the proper level of the FES of Ukraine in the context of crisis, it is necessary to: improve the regulatory framework by introducing a mandatory norm for calculating the FES index annually along with the forecast value of the risk level; introduction of mechanisms to increase Ukraine's role in the world trade system through the development of high-tech sectors of the economy, in particular through attracting international investment; search for new opportunities for foreign trade cooperation and development of the internal market.