ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ РОЛІ ОБЛІКОВОЇ СТАВКИ НБУ В МАКРОЕКОНОМІЧНОМУ РЕГУЛЮВАННІ ЕКОНОМІКИ УКРАЇНИ

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the essence, specifics of use and the main trends of the discount rate of the National Bank of Ukraine as an effective and one of the most important instruments of the state monetary policy. An assessment of the NBU’s discount rate dynamics over the past 15 years allows us to build a holistic picture of monetary regulation of economic cycles in Ukraine. Furthermore, particular attention is paid to the study of the Ukrainian economy’s specific conditions, which influenced the change in the discount rate, and of the macroeconomic goals, the achievement of which was planned by the NBU. Additionally, the article profoundly analyzes the relationship between the discount rate and the inflation intensity. It is observed that the discount rate increases with increasing inflation, as the higher discount rate has a deterrent effect on inflation processes. The article also shows how the level of the discount rate depends on the level of economic activity, which is characterized by GDP. Taking into consideration the specific economy conditions and strategic goals set during the NBU's monetary policy implementation, it becomes obvious that raising the discount rate suspends the economic activity of counterparties, while reducing it stimulates economic development. Based on statistical data of 2006-2020, the impact of the discount rate on the volume of attracted deposits and loans provided by the Ukrainian banking sector is confirmed. Moreover, it is found that in the period of economic instability, when the discount rate rises, the volume of loan and deposit portfolios of domestic banks is significantly reduced. To sum up, forecast judgments on the further dynamics of the NBU’s discount rate in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic are made and the validity of the current discount rate on compliance with the needs and state of the Ukrainian economy is characterized.