Траектории движения циклонов над Черным морем по данным атмосферных ре-анализов

Abstract

The features of the development of cyclones, which can cause the generation of storm surges, depending on the trajectory and parameters of cyclones in the Azov-Black Sea basin, are investigated. An extreme storm surge in the Taganrog Bay and the mouth of the Don River on September 24, 2014 was taken as a test situation. Based on the data of meteorological observations at the posts and ERA5 re-analysis data on atmospheric pressure, wind speed and relative vorticity at the level of 850 hPa, the peculiarities of the movement of the cyclone that caused extreme sea level rise are studied: the trajectory of movement, the speed of the cyclone, diameter, atmospheric pressure in its center, wind speed. The parameters of this cyclone identified in this way were used to identify the tracks of cyclones according to the data of atmospheric re-analyzes (ERA-Interim and ERA-5) for 2014–2020 over the Azov-Black Sea basin to study the spatio-temporal variability of cyclone trajectories and its influence on the characteristics of sea level in the coastal zone of the Crimea and the Azov Sea. A method for calculating of the cyclones movement tracks is proposed, based on the analysis of the relative vorticity of the atmospheric fields of re-analysis at the level of 850 hPa. Further, for each cyclone, a characteristic region was identified, for which the minimum surface atmospheric pressure and the maximum wind speed were determined. Then, according to the coordinates of the center of this area, the path (track) of the cyclone movement for the Azov–Black Sea region was calculated. As a result, criteria for identifying cyclones that are potentially capable of causing extreme storm surges were formulated, estimates of the spatial characteristics of cyclones and patterns of sea level variability in the coastal zone of the Crimea were obtained at different phases of cyclone movement over the region.