Социо-эколого-экономическая устойчивость северного региона на основе модели «окно устойчивости»

Abstract

A review of the scientific literature and other materials related to sustainable development and the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals at the national level shows that there is a need to take into account all aspects of sustainable development: environmental, social, economic. In this regard, monitoring and measuring the sustainability of the development of regional social, ecological and economic systems, the pace of change, determining the vector of development of the main components and their relationship are of high relevance. The analysis revealed the methodology of sustainable development window (SuWi) applied for an integral assessment of the social, ecological and economic sustainability of the northern region. This methodology takes into account the principles of sustainable development to the greatest extent. Methodology’s scope is to determine the parameters of minimum and maximum economic development, highlight the GDPmin – GDPmax interval (or a sustainability window), which helps economic development meet the criteria of social and environmental sustainability. The parameters of the window’s minimum level are determined by social criteria, while the window’s the maximum level – by environmental ones. The sustainability window scope is defined as follows: an analytical database (2007–2019) of the northern region (Komi Republic) is compiled in economic, social and environmental dimensions; assessment criteria (indicators) for the main components of sustainable development are reasoned; their index relative to the base year is assessed (in absolute value and intensity); the lower and upper limits of the stability window are defined by calculation and graphical methods, the window’s integral width is found taking into account all indicators. SuWi analysis of social sustainability showed that “wages” and “life expectancy at birth” out of the five indicators correspond to the minimum level of economic growth. At the same time, it should be noted that since 2017, economic performance decline has been a constraining factor for the region’s social development in terms of these indicators as well. The authors arrive at the conclusion that the situation in the development of the northern region is unfavorable, primarily in the social sphere due to the long-term decline in the gross regional product (which is below its baseline since 2014), which requires enhanced economic growth. The study gives valuable results in sustainability-window based social, ecological and economic sustainability analysis, which makes the study relevant. The methodology of the sustainable development window can be built into the management decisions system for the respective authorities. In the future, research should be focused on improving the economic stability of the region, conducting an in-depth analysis of the possibilities aimed to overcome the recession identified in this paper.