ЗАСТОСУВАННЯ МЕТОДУ МІНІМАЛЬНИХ ОСТІВНИХ ДЕРЕВ ДЛЯ АНАЛІЗУ СТРУКТУРИ СВІТОВОГО РИНКУ ТОВАРІВ І ПОСЛУГ

Abstract

Introduction . At the present stage, the world market of goods and services plays a significant role in the economic development of countries, regions, and the world conglomerate, since international trade has become a potent factor in economic growth. Besides, the dependence of countries on international trade has increased considerably. Therefore, there is a need to study the current state of international trade in goods and services, the structure of their exchange and the prediction of further dynamics to develop trade policy. The research can be done more accurately and efficiently using the methods of economic and mathematical modeling. Purpose. Analysis of the world market structure of goods and services and identification of future trends in its development using the method of minimum spanning trees. Methods. The paper includes general scientific research methods: analysis, synthesis, comparison, modeling, induction and specific scientific economic and mathematical methods, namely cluster analysis and the method of minimum spanning trees. Results . The article substantiates the expediency of applying the method of minimum spanning trees to analyze the structure of the world market of goods and services, as well as to identify further trends in its development through qualitative analysis of dendrograms. Dendrograms of exports and imports of goods and services for the period from 2017 to the 2nd quarter of 2020 have been analyzed. There is a tendency to form protected regional markets due to the pandemic and to cluster a group of countries within the world market of goods and services, mainly according to the level of economic development. Originality. Using the method of minimum spanning trees, the general structure of the world market was studied on the basis of exports and imports of goods and services of 33 countries in terms of United States dollars. A qualitative analysis of the obtained dendrograms and a forecast of key changes in the market structure have been made, including indentifying the leaders, whose strategies will be a guide for other countries that will join the same cluster. Conclusion . Analysis of the structure of the world market by the method of minimum spanning trees allows assessing the similarity of the strategy of countries exporting and importing goods and services, determining which market to focus on and predicting future trends in other countries.