우리나라 시군구의 음주율, 일반음식점 및 주점의 밀도가 폭력 범죄에 미치는 영향

Abstract

Objectives: This study aims to determine the regional spatial pattern of the number of restaurants and bars per population unit—one of the physical availability variables of alcohol—and to determine its relationship with violence, which is associated with harmful alcohol consumption. Methods: This study used secondary data from 250 cities and counties in South Korea gathered by several national institutions. The dependent variable is the number of violent crimes per 100,000 people, and the independent variables are the number of restaurants and bars per 100,000 people and monthly alcohol drinking rates in 250 cities and counties in Korea. Spatial cluster analysis and Bayesian conditional autoregressive modeling were employed using ArcGIS pro 2.6.0 and R programming. Results: Spatial autocorrelation was shown in the dependent variable and three independent variables. Regarding the number of violent crimes per 100,000 people, spatial hotspots occurred in Gangneung and Sokcho cities, Gangwon-do, Pyeongtaek, and Woongjin-si, the metropolitan area in Gyeonggi-do. Monthly alcohol drinking rate hot spots in cities and counties appeared in huge clusters: Busan and Ulsan cities. The local spatial autocorrelation of general restaurants was high in the coastal area of Gangwon-do. Restaurant hot spots occurred in cities and counties in coastal areas of Gangwon-do. Bar hot spots appeared in the coastal areas of Gangwon-do, some areas of Gyeongsangnam-do, and Busan city. Using Bayesian conditional autoregressive modeling, the factors affecting the rate of violent crime per 100,000 people were monthly alcohol drinking rate (p<.05) and the number of restaurants per 100,000 population (p<.01). Conclusion: It is necessary to establish a cooperative system in areas where alcohol consumption rates and violent crimes are clustered.