ЩОДО ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ВІДПОВІДНОСТІ МАТЕМАТИЧНОЇ МОДЕЛІ БЕЗВІДМОВНОСТІ БОЙОВИХ ЗАСОБІВ ЗЕНІТНИХ РАКЕТНИХ ВІЙСЬК ВИМОГАМ ДО МАТЕМАТИЧНИХ МОДЕЛЕЙ

Abstract

The article presents a variant of the procedure for assessing the compliance of the mathematical model of the reliability of anti-aircraft missile warfare equipment with the requirements for mathematical models using the example of the Buk self-propelled fire launcher. Parameters affecting change of serviceability of self-propelled fire plant operation in conditions of combat situation are determined. The use of the Weibull distribution allows, by varying the parameter values, to increase the guarantee of the implemented self-propelled fire plant reliability indicators, stated in technical conditions, during its operation in the troops. If necessary, this model can also take into account factors that arise suddenly, for example, taking into account the staffing of the self-propelled fire plant of the anti-aircraft missile regiment to assess the possible (predicted) value of average daily losses, taking into account various measures to reduce the values of the predicted average daily losses. Values calculated using this model react markedly to changes in model parameters, are set within the specified restrictions. In addition, it is possible to determine the time between failures. The accuracy of the results of calculating certain quantities using the mathematical model was estimated by absolute and relative errors. The calculations indicate the relative simplicity of the mathematical model, because it uses simple mathematical methods. The ability to vary the parameters of scale and shape parameters (taking into account aging), the mathematical model of IED failure makes it possible to obtain individual (partial) results obtained using previously used similar models, which emphasizes the evolution of this model. The improved method of mathematical modeling quite adequately reflects the trouble-free operation of the anti-aircraft missile system "Buk" taking into account the conditions of hostilities and meets the requirements for mathematical models. Keywords: probability of failure-free operation, parameters of mathematical model, combat situation, absolute error, time between failures, average daily combat losses.