우리나라 비중앙급전발전기의 하루전 출력 예측시스템 개발

Abstract

This paper proposes a probabi listic generatio n assessment mo del of renewable energy generators(REGs) considering uncertainty of resources, mainly focused on Wind Turbine Genera tor(WTG) and Solar Cell Generator(SCG) which are dispersed widely in South Korea The propos ed numerical analysis method as sesses the one day-ahead generation by combining equivalent generation characteristics function and probabilisti c distribution function of wind speed(WS) and solar radiation(S R) resources. The equivalent generat ion functions(EGFs) of the win d and solar farms are established by grouping a lot of the farms appropriately centered on W eather Measurement Station(WMS ). First, the EGFs are assessed by using regression analysis method based on typical least squ are method from the recorded a ctual generation data and hist orical resources(WS and SR). Second, the generation of the REGs is assessed by adding the on e day-ahead resources forecast, announced by WMS, to the EGFs which are formulated as third order degree polynomials usi ng the regression analysis. Third, a Renewable Energy Generation Assessment System(REGA S) including D/B of recorded a ctual generation data and hist orical resources is developed using the model and algorithm pre dicting one day-ahead power ou tput of renewable energy generators.