Молодые внутренние мигранты в восточных провинциях Кубы: анализ вероятности социальной интеграции

Abstract

The paper analyzes the results obtained in an empirical study designed to predict the probability of social integration of young internal migrants who move between the five provinces of the Eastern region of Cuba. The social integration of the internal migrants is a pressing issue for the development strategy that is being implemented in the provinces as a part of local projects; given the trend of the aging population of Cuba and the high flow of internal migration among young people. As a tool, the “model for predicting the probability of social integration of internal migrants”, created and confirmed by the authors in a previous study of this aspect for young people who migrated from other provinces to the province of Holguin, is used. The following parameters were taken into account: population, level of development, level of urbanization, sending and receiving territories, and the distance between them, as well as age, gender, and level of education. All data is obtained from statistical yearbooks. The probability of social integration of young internal migrants is predicted basing on the time spent on the territory of origin and the receiving one. The results show the impact of these parameters on the likely levels of social integration of young people arriving in each territory. The determining role of the level of urbanization in social integration is evaluated regardless of the level of development of the territory in question. It is observed that the average probability of integration of these young people prevails. The probability of a higher level of integration is reached in the provinces of Holguin and Granma and a lower level in the province of Guantanamo.