Особенности проявления новых внутренних и внешних шоков в лесном комплексе ДФО и их возможные последствия

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to study the situation in the forest complex of the Far Eastern Federal District under the conditions of economic instability that arose under the influence of a number of internal and external shocks. Some preliminary assessments of the reaction of the forest complex of the macroregion to institutional and sanctions restrictions in 2022 are given. It is concluded that these restrictions have only exacerbated the situation in the heavy forested regions of the Far East, which was previously formed by innovations in customs regulation and the «pandemic» crisis, but so far it is not critical. The total ban on the export of raw timber, introduced in 2022, is partially offset by supplies to the domestic market, but with sanctions restrictions on processed products, a further reduction in domestic demand for raw materials is possible. It is shown that investment intentions remain in the forest complex, mainly these are medium and small-scale projects with a short payback period, aimed at expanding production, with increased orientation towards the intra-regional market, and relying on state support. It was revealed that the main limitations for the development of the Far Eastern forest complex in the short term are: increased competition in the forest markets of North-East Asia from exporters from the central part of Russia, which leads to an increased risk of losing their niches in these markets while maintaining sanctions restrictions; infrastructural restrictions that have arisen due to the reorientation of commodity flows to the East of Russia, which narrows the possibilities of the Far Eastern timber exporters in traditional directions; demand restrictions associated with a ban on the import of processed wood products in Japan, which increases the risk of becoming more tied to the Chinese market; strengthening of the ruble exchange rate, reducing export earnings