Загальні положення методики оцінювання рівня воєнної небезпеки на основі таксономічних методів

Abstract

The article proposes the application of a method for assessing the level of military danger for the country. The focus is on the acute need to develop a unified approach to describing the constituent geopolitical processes and formalizing procedures for describing their impact on the level of military danger for the country. The possibility of using mathematical methods of multidimensional comparative analysis of factors that significantly affect the level of military danger was formulated in the article. An overview of existing research and publications of specialists in the national security strategy on the investigation of threats to national interests in the military sector has shown that the existing approaches are relevant. In conducted research, military danger, as a subsidiary concept of military science, is the basis of research and is considered as the potential ability of any country (group of countries) to use military force for resolving interstate contradictions. Military danger will persist as long as there are conflicts of interests of the countries, and its level will be determined by the nature of the existing contradictions and the availability of material resources for armed struggle. At the same time, there is some heterogeneity in the views of experts on the concept of military danger for the country and the lack of unambiguousness in determining its place in the system of ensuring national security. Therefore, this necessitates the use of an adequate scientific and methodical apparatus for evaluating and forecasting the military-political and military-strategic situation in order to develop concrete proposals to support the necessary level of military security of the country. The presented methodology allows us to obtain quantitative estimates of the level of military danger and the risks of resolving armed conflict by other countries based on a comprehensive analysis of interstate relations in the political, economic, military, religious and other spheres. The application of this methodology is a key to developing effective managerial decisions in order to ensure an acceptable level of military danger and to identify measures to reduce tensions in relations between countries.