Оценка влияния возобновляемых источников энергии на энергетическую безопасность

Abstract

The article examines the impact of renewable energy sources development on increasing the energy security level of the country, energy security risks and threats. The main hypothesis of the study is the presence of renewable energy influence on energy security level of the Republic of Belarus. In the course of the study, the existing indicators of energy security, formed in the Concept of Energy Security of the Republic of Belarus, and the existing methodology for assessing the energy security level in the country were considered. Information on the installed capacity of power plants based on renewable energy sources in the country and the energy they generate was collected; factors that accelerated the development of the most popular areas of renewable energy in the country have been identified. On the basis of the existing indicators of energy security, an integral indicator was developed and calculated. The calculation results indicate a gradual increase in the level of energy security of the Republic of Belarus in the period from 2010 to 2018. The main hypothesis was tested using the correlation analysis. Based on the previously calculated values, a correlation matrix was built and the values of the correlation coefficients were determined. Correlation analysis showed the presence of a strong positive relationship between the installed capacity and energy production from renewable sources, on the one hand, and the integral indicator of energy security and its individual blocks, on the other hand. Renewable energy sources have the greatest impact on such blocks of energy security as energy independence, energy efficiency of final consumption of fuel and energy resources and economic sustainability of the fuel and energy complex. The statistical significance of the correlation coefficients was checked using the Student's t-test and showed the high significance of the results obtained. Based on the results of the study, it can be concluded that the development of renewable energy sources has a significant positive impact on the level of energy security of the country and, accordingly, the possibility of reducing the risks and threats to which the energy industry is exposed through the development of renewable energy. The work may be of interest to scientists and teachers, specialists, graduate students and students in the field of energy.