Новое измерение глобальной энергетической безопасности

Abstract

The article analyzes the current state of energy markets. The basic fundamental factor of the demand for energy resources – the world economy growth – is rather low. At the same time, the USA and China demonstrate steady economic growth, thus rising demand for hydrocarbons. But recent decline of prices for oil and other commodities like metals or grain shows that among various factors, both fundamental and speculative, financial markets are also speeding up the volatility on the markets, thus deepening the gap between “paper” and “fair” oil price. Also, it is necessary to analyze the impact on the situation on the global oil market of such multidirectional factors as influence of “shale revolution” in the USA or Saudi Arabia refusal to reduce oil production. Shale oil helped USA to overcome oil import dependency and to become an exporter in the future. However, production costs in the country are rather high. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia has low production costs and is now trying to keep the international prices at a level that makes the US shale projects infeasible. The Saudi budget 2015 assumed a price of $90/barrel and it can endure $50 as well. However, other oil exporting countries face huge losses. Nevertheless, in the future oil prices will rise and evidently the level of fair price can be determined at $60-70/barrel. The author examines also the break-even prices for oil production and levels of oil prices necessary for formation of budgets of oil exporting countries. The changes on oil and gas markets lead to formation of more complicated global energy space and to shifts in the concept of energy security from ensuring the stability of energy supplies to energy self-sufficiency. The transformation of energy markets and geopolitical risks cause the changes in the transportation logistics and enhance risks of implementation of new trans-border pipelines. Prospects of sustainable and multidirectional development of global and regional energy markets are also considered.