Афганистан и новая международная конфигурация в Азии

Abstract

The development of the international political changes in Central and South Asia is analyzed in the article in connection with the consequences of the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s second rise to power (the first one was in 1996). It is shown that the peaceful transformation of Afghanistan is impeded by such persistent threats as religious extremism, terrorism, illegal drug trafficking. The complex mosaic of regional relations, in which Afghanistan is becoming an important element due to the changes that have happened in this country, is determined in Asia by the growing rivalry and competitive struggle of major economic states of the region, as well as global players, and by the efforts of all of them to build various international coalitions (Shanghai Cooperation Organization, RIC – Russia, India, China; Quadripartite Security Dialogue – QUAD, C5+1, Organization of Turkic States, etc.). Of particular interest in this regard is the position of the neighboring states – the three Central Asian nations (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan), as well as China, Pakistan, India and Iran. Apart from that, this study also outlines the most important challenges for the national security interests of Afghanistan’s Asian neighbors. An optimal scenario for both Afghanistan’s Asian neighbors and Russia would imply achieving a stable consensus in this country. Afghanistan becoming a full member of such an influential international bloc as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, where Russia, Central Asian states and major Asian economic powers are already represented, can have positive consequences for the stabilization of the situation in the country and the whole Asian region. This would create favorable conditions for successful economic and political interaction between the Central and South Asian states. In conclusion the author emphasizes that the transformations in Afghanistan have complicated regional challenges, prompting neighboring states to focus on the military-political component of their security. Aiming to prevent a negative scenario in Afghanistan, they also multiplied diplomatic contacts with the current leadership of the country. The new international political configuration that is emerging in modern Asia dictates new approaches in the security sphere for the Asian states.