ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ ЙМОВІРНОСТІ БАНКРУТСТВА СТРАХОВОЇ КОМПАНІЇ

Abstract

The analysis of probability of bankruptcy is one of directions of financial analysis, and the general purpose of financial analysis – rendering assistance in development of reasonable and effective administrative decisions. The analysis is important for all subjects of the insurance market, including the National Bank of Ukraine, as the regulator of the financial services market, which is interested in the financial stability of the insurance market. Especially, if in recent years there has been a tendency to reduce the number of insurers. The bankruptcy probability assessment may be carried out by the management of the company itself to identify weaknesses and prevent bankruptcy. There is great interest in methods that allow assessing the probability of bankruptcy in advance, predicting the onset of financial insolvency of the organization. Analysis of the likelihood of bankruptcy allows the company to obtain an objective assessment of its activities, can adjust it in the right direction by taking prompt or preventive measures. The aim of the research is to determine the probability of bankruptcy of the insurance company, by the example of ALC “IC “Motor-Garant”” on the basis of foreign and domestic models, such as Taffler-Tishaw, Springate, A.P. Zaitseva. Analysis of the likelihood of bankruptcy by several methods will be carried out on the basis of the data reflected in the company’s financial statements. These models are considered to determine the probability of bankruptcy of the insurance company, determining their main advantages and disadvantages, as well as the possibility of their use in practice. It is proved, that the estimation of probability of bankruptcy of insurance companies in modern conditions of doing business allows to define the real situation of the insurer in the market and to reveal critical moments in activity. As a matter of fact, the earth models were started for the old enterprises, but is it the land has its own specifics. However, one should take into account that all forecasting methods have their limitations and inaccuracies. For the most complete and accurate analysis it is recommended to rely on the results of three or more different models.