Прогнозування фрахтових ставок методом кореляційно-регресійного аналізу

Abstract

In the article it is underlined that sea navigation, for performance of the basic function - transportation of cargoes and passengers, should react to changes which occur in the world trade. To such changes the following is referred: growth of volumes of cargo transportation, changes in the structure of cargoes, changes in geography of transportation and other. Changes in the character and trade volumes lead to changes in structure of a world merchant marine fleet and in the charter market. It is noticed that for drawing up intermediate term forecasts in the world charter market many data, such as the following are used: a portfolio of orders of the world tonnage, disposal of old vessels, cost of new and previously used vessels. The analysis of dynamics of the above-mentioned indicators has allowed to deal with a question of an establishment of charter rates, the conclusion of long-term contracts on cargo transportation, sale or purchase of vessels. It is underlined that for forecasting methods of mathematical statistics are used. They are divided into descriptive and analytical. The descriptive statistics is connected with research planning, gathering of the information and representation of results in the form of statistical data. The information is presented in charts and graphs. The task of analytical statistics - to establish causal relationships which allow to estimate influence of investigated factors and to draw appropriate conclusions grounding on which it is possible to make the decision. In the article the correlation analysis is carried out and regression equations are presented. Their application gives the chance to express correlation between the features analytically - in the form of the equation - and to give quantitative expression. The features inherent to the correlation analysis are underlined and tasks which are solved by multiple correlation are specified.