Глобальные цепочки стоимости между Россией и Беларусью в новых геополитических условиях

Abstract

The article examines some aspects of building global value chains between Russia and Belarus in the new geopolitical conditions, indicating their impact on the human capital of both countries. The relevance of the topic at the moment is high, as the difficult geopolitical situation persists and even develops. The key reason is the sanctions constantly imposed by Europe and the US against the Russian Federation and its allies, for example, Belarus, which especially fully supports our country in this difficult period. The number of already existing numerous sanctions imposed on both countries under study is constantly growing, which has already led to the destruction of many global value chains. Under these conditions, Russia and Belarus have no choice, they begin to create their own new global value chains among themselves. At the same time, cooperation with other countries is not being eliminated, many allies of Belarus and Russia, for example, China and India, only increase the number of ties between the countries. This situation creates in Belarus a desire to diversify its global value chains, which directly led to the formation of a diversification policy that implies a decrease in trade with the Russian Federation in favor of other states. Belarus needs to decide whether this redistribution is necessary, whether it will bring more benefits than negative aspects. The aim of the work is to identify new global value chains that have formed or may form between Russia and Belarus in the new geopolitical conditions. To do this, the following research objectives are set: (1) to identify global value chains that existed before the situation under study, that is, before the change in geopolitics; (2) to consider the actions that led to the creation of new global value chains, to study their consequences; (3) to study the impact of new global value chains on the human capital of Russia and Belarus. The following research methods are applied in the study: description, synthesis, generalization, statistical analysis, comparative analysis, induction, and deduction. The result of the syudy is the identification of new value chains that have been formed, liquidated, and become promising for Russia and Belarus. As a result of the study, a conclusion is made about the need to continue the economic integration of Russia and Belarus for the full implementation of all possible new global value chains. The author has found that the economic risks for Belarus with the full implementation of the diversification program are too great, despite the awareness of the reasons for the program’s occurrence. In the current situation, only the union of the two countries under study guarantees their development in the economic and social direction.