Математическая модель оценки вклада вирусных гепатитов в формирование инфекционного пенитенциарного синдрома.

Abstract

P u r p o s e : to study the role of viral hepatitis in the development and course of comorbid infection (disease caused by HIV, tuberculosis and parenteral viral hepatitis) in persons serving the penalty of deprivation of liberty. M e t h o d s . The indicators reflecting the epidemic situation of tuberculosis, HIV infection and parenteral viral hepatitis in institutions of the Russian penal system were analyzed. Correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis were conducted, followed by an analysis of the quality of the obtained regression models (calculation of the coefficient of determination). R e s u l t s . The following parameters have the maximum correlation between the predictors and the response function in this group of observations, with the subsequent exclusion of factors whose correlation with the variables involved in the calculations was higher than the correlation of these indicators with the response function: the incidence of hepatitis B per 100 thousand people (r = 0,86) [X1], the number of newly diagnosed hepatitis C patients in 2021 (r = 0,85) [X2], the proportion of newly diagnosed HIV-infected people in combination with tuberculosis and viral hepatitis (B, C, B+D), % (r = 0,85) [X3], the number of HIV patients receiving ART (r = 0,85) [X4], the incidence of tuberculosis in Pre-trial detention center (PTDC), per 100 thousand people (r=0,41) [X5], the number of newly arrested tuberculosis patients identified during the initial examination (r = 0,41) [X6]. The model was obtained: simulated mortality from HIV = –6,7 + 0,48 * X1 + 0,39 * X3 – 0,07 * X5 (R2 = 0,86). A similar model was obtained for the absolute values of the number of deaths; it involved the following parameters: the number of newly diagnosed patients with viral hepatitis B [X1], the number of newly diagnosed patients with viral hepatitis C [X2], the number of newly diagnosed HIV patients in combination with tuberculosis [X3], the number of patients burdened by premorbid background (injecting drug users) [X4]: The number of deaths from HIV= –0,36 + 0,06 * X1 + 0.02 * X2 + 0.36 * X3 + 0,03 * X4 (R2 = 0.91). C o n c l u s i o n . The association of HIV mortality rate with viral hepatitis and tuberculosis incidence is shown and estimated. HIV mortality can be considered as a function of the following factors: 1) the incidence of hepatitis B, 2) the proportion of first-time detected persons with HIV-tuberculosis-viral hepatitis coinfection, and 3) the incidence of tuberculosis in pre-trial detention centers.