Моделювання змінення цін на стандартні номери в польських готелях (Краків)

Abstract

The tendencies in the development of the hotel industry in Europe and in Poland in particular are analyzed. Extensive and relevant statistical material was taken from booking sites as of November 2022. Most often, the analysis of economic tendencies in the development of the hotel industry is based on expert assessments or statistical data from travel agencies. The conducted analysis is based on mathematical modeling and the use of Microsoft Excel mathematical and statistical tools. The world market of hotel services is constantly changing, has a dynamic structure, develops in interaction with other markets of goods and services, is influenced by the market environment. Therefore, modern hotels have to adapt to a new type of tourists with rather high requirements for accommodation conditions. In Europe, there is a tendency to stay in 1* and 2* hotels. The study covers data from the Polish city of Krakow. These data represent the spatial series, on the basis of which regression mathematical models are built for evaluating the tendencies of changes in the level of prices for the corresponding hotel rooms. The series are spatial because the data are collected at a specific point in time, but from different objects located geographically at different points. The built models are not representative, but they provide an opportunity to assess the tendencies of price growth or decline and the possibility of entering into crisis economic occurrences. The work is devoted to the analysis of tendencies of changes in hotel room prices and the evaluation of these changes using the construction of regression economic-mathematical models of space and time series. The relevance and significance of the study lies in the analysis and assessment of price tendencies for standard hotel rooms in the popular segment of 1* and 2* hotels in Poland. This country is Ukraine’s closest neighbor, therefore the study of economic trends in the development of its hotel industry is relevant not only for tendencies in Europe, but also for the future of the hotel segment of our country. The conducted analysis showed the presence of a mathematically defined tendency towards a moderate increase in prices for «standard» hotel rooms. The price function for these hotel rooms is an increasing one, but it does not cross the growth limit of the corresponding exponential function built on the same spatial number series. But such a tendency should not lead to any crisis occurrences in the hotel sector of Poland