Abstract
The distribution of military conflicts duration, the calculation of their average and median duration and the forecast of conflicts in future have been conducted based on the statistical analysis of most military conflicts in the XX–XXI centuries (up to the end of 2016). The unpredictability of military conflicts duration and useless of their accurate forecast have been grounded. The portion of periods when military conflicts occurred in the USSR and Russia during ХХ–ХХI centuries has been determined. The dynamics of military expenditure trends and its share in the GDP of the USA and Russia have been analyzed. The tendency to the GDP slowdown associated with the participation in military conflicts has been observed. The trend to increase military expenditures has also been revealed. The forecast of absolute values, GDP growth trends and military expenditures of Russia and the USA has been made using autoregression and trend models. The conception to create a special military fund to accumulate recourses to insure a country from different risks in current and future military campaigns has been suggested. The structure of expenditures on military campaigns has been analyzed. The examples of high costs of a country participation in military conflicts and full-scale wars in the case study of the USA have been given. The influence of military expenditures on an economic growth in a country has been studied based on the criticism of the “broken windows” effect. The positive effect to increase military expenditures on the social-economic development of a country to strengthen the security and to transfer military developments to a civil sector has been observed. The necessity to manage GDP dynamics due to military expenditures increase has been grounded. The future researches will concern the size of a special military fund and the speed of its increase. Keywords military conflict, expenditures, duration, a model, autoregression, resources, forecast, economic growth, GDP, fund, the expected duration, the broken windows theory.
Highlights
На основе статистического анализа подавляющего большинства военных конфликтов ХХ и ХХI вв. составлено распределение их длительности, рассчитаны средняя и медианная продолжительности конфликта и построен прогноз количества новых конфликтов в будущем
The distribution of military conflicts duration, the calculation of their average and median duration and the forecast of conflicts in future have been conducted based on the statistical analysis of most military conflicts in the XX–XXI centuries
The portion of periods when military conflicts occurred in the USSR and Russia during ХХ–ХХI centuries has been determined
Summary
СТАТИСТИЧЕСКИЙ АНАЛИЗ ВРЕМЕННЫХ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИК ЛОКАЛЬНЫХ КОНФЛИКТОВ И ВОЕННЫХ РАСХОДОВ (НА ПРИМЕРЕ РОССИИ И США). Проанализирована динамика изменения темпов роста военных расходов и их доли в ВВП США и России. Обнаружено замедление темпов роста ВВП, связанное с участием в вооруженных конфликтах, выявлена тенденция к росту затрат на финансирование военных действий. С использованием авторегрессионных и трендовых моделей построены прогнозы абсолютных значений и темпов роста ВВП и военных расходов России и США. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF TIME PARAMETERS OF LOCAL CONFLICTS AND MILITARY EXPENDITURES (IN THE CASE STUDY OF RUSSIA AND THE USA). В современном мире происходит множество военных конфликтов, многие из них являются непредсказуемыми по своей длительности. В условиях постоянно растущих военных расходов и роста числа конфликтов в мире необходимо более тщательно рассчитывать размер экономического обеспечения военных действий, балансировать во времени оборонные расходы и создавать запасы во время отсутствия масштабных войн. С целью приблизительной оценки этих параметров авторами был произведен анализ вооруженных конфликтов различных уровней, происходивших в ХХ и начале ХХI в
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