Abstract
The author has analyzed the “Strategy for the Spatial Development of the Russian Federation for the Period up to 2025” and “Strategy for the Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and Ensuring National Security for the Period up to 2035”. Nine Arctic territories are considered. The author presents the goals of spatial development of the Russian Arctic Zone in the form of four research hypotheses, such as: each Arctic territory has more promising economic specializations than the average non-Arctic region; by the combination of specializations, the Arctic territories differ significantly from any non-Arctic region; the similarity between the Arctic territories is greater than between the ones and neighboring non-Arctic territories; the number of promising centers of economic growth in each Arctic territory is greater than in the average non-Arctic region. The author proposes a quantitative measure of the similarity of regions according to the combination of economic specializations. Calculations have shown that all initial hypotheses should be rejected as erroneous and alternative hypotheses should be recognized, according to which the goals of spatial development cannot be achieved as a result of the implementation of the activities listed in the two strategies. The researcher gives the distribution of prospective economic specializations in the Arctic territories and the significance of the similarity of these territories to each other. The Arctic Zone is found to be not a single economic macro-region, but is represented by four different clusters. The author notes the need for the formation of promising specializations in the digital economy. The practical significance of the study may be associated with the adjustment of existing or the development of new strategies for the economic development of the Russian Arctic Zone.
Highlights
The author presents the goals of spatial development of the Russian Arctic Zone in the form of four research hypotheses, such as: each Arctic territory has more promising economic specializations than the average non-Arctic region; by the combination of specializations, the Arctic territories differ significantly from any non-Arctic region; the similarity between the Arctic territories is greater than between the ones and neighboring non-Arctic territories; the number of promising centers of economic growth in each Arctic territory is greater than in the average non-Arctic region
The author proposes a quantitative measure of the similarity of regions according to the combination of economic specializations
Calculations have shown that all initial hypotheses should be rejected as erroneous and alternative hypotheses should be recognized, according to which the goals of spatial development cannot be achieved as a result of the implementation of the activities listed in the two strategies
Summary
Относительно недавно утвержден новый документ — «Стратегия развития Аркт ической зоны Российской Федерации и обеспечения национальной безопасности на период до 2035 года»2 (далее — Арктическая стратегия или А-стратегия). Для реализации цели сформулировано несколько гипотез исследования, связанных с первыми тремя приложениями к П-стратегии, задана количественная мера сходства между территориями (регионами), проведены расчеты и интерпретированы полученные результаты в отношении как принятия или отклонения гипотез, так и обсуждения перспектив экономического развития Аркт ической зоны России. Если Аркт ическая зона является уникальным объектом и требуются «специальные подходы к ее социально-экономическому развитию» (пункт 4 А-стратегии), то специфика этого развития должна найти отражение в сочетании (наборе) перспективных экономических специализаций. Это следует из первых двух приоритетов пространственного развития — «опережающее развитие территорий с низким уровнем социально-экономического развития» и «развитие перспективных центров экономического роста с увеличением их количества и максимальным рассредоточением по территории Российской Федерации» (раздел IV П-стратегии). Поэтому перспективные экономические специализации и перспективные центры экономического роста в неарктических регионах определялись по П-стратегии, а эти же специализации и центры роста в арктических территориях — по А-стратегии
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