Нова методика оцінки пожежного ризику

Abstract

Ukraine is at the last places at the international ratings concerning safety of life. It is related first of all to the fields of technogenic safety and fire safety. The values of annual losses due to fires, accidents and due to other emergency situations reach billions of hryvna, which is the essential part of the national budget and they have the increasing trends. Such situation is common for almost all branches of the industry of Ukraine except for the nuclear energy of Ukraine, which is under the additional guidance and under the additional control of the international organizations. The authors of this paper consider the prevalence of obsolete paradigm of safety management based on inspection control without risk evaluations and the insignificant adoption of the digital technologies. Modern safety management should be based on the detailed analysis of the working conditions, personnel safety modelling, popula-tion and the environment, causes of the possible emergency situations, possible errors of the personnel and thus identifying measures and means to prevent fires and accidents and reducing possible conse-quences. It should be the modern information technology based on the paradigm of risk-based approach, in general. This technology implies the existence of databases, accumulation of the statistical data with prompt professional processing of them, modelling of dangerous situations with live risk assessment, with permanent risk monitoring and the measures to maintain the risk at the acceptable level. Methods and algorithms for solving these problems must be defined, which allow automated processing of cur-rent values of risk parameters by computer devices in Windows and Android environments. The authors propose new algorithms for monitoring the current risk situation based on a modernized method of fail-ure and consequence analysis, by detailed analysis of loss due to partial failures of security systems, and summarizing the results of analysis by convolution in all areas of inspection and all hazardous objects.