Abstract
The article presents the application of scenario modeling methods to assess the potential for scaling electoral support for political parties through digital communications (communities in social networks) based on data obtained from social networks. An analysis of communities in several social networks was carried out, various indicators were downloaded, reflecting the activity of both communities and users of such communities. Based on these data, various aggregates were calculated. Then a software package was developed that implements scenario modeling based on various identified indicators. The scenarios provide for the development of groups in social networks, depending on the activity of these groups. In this case, the activity is given by a random variable with a normal distribution. To test the developed algorithms, indicators of political communities in social networks were used.
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