Методика оцінювання результативності шляхів взаємодії ЗС України з Північноатлантичним Альянсом

Abstract

Asymmetrical wars that have continued for more than twenty years on theterritoryofIraq,AfghanistanandSyria, and the hybrid aggression ofRussiaagainstUkrainerequire the search for fundamentally new forms and ways of achieving goals in modern military conflicts. The North Atlantic Alliance considers support and development of the security and defense sector (Security Force Assistance, SFA) capabilities of partner countries that are not members of NATO as one of the areas to counter the new threats and security. Analysis of the possibilities of applying the new concept to ensure the security ofUkraineis relevant. The purpose of the article is to improve the methodological provisions for assessing the effectiveness of the ways the Ukrainian armed forces interact with NATO in solving the conflict in the east of Ukraine based on the use of the fuzzy set theory method and cluster analysis. The North Atlantic Alliance is introducing an effective concept of supporting and developing the capabilities of the security and defense sectors and practical mechanisms for its implementation, which can solve many security and defense problems of non-NATO countries. At the same time, the introduction of such a concept requires partner countries to change the regulatory framework and appropriate infrastructure preparation. The methodology for assessing the effectiveness of the ways in whichUkraine’s armed forces interact with NATO is analogous to the Methodology for evaluating modern military conflicts and is adapted to create a database of the routes themselves and to clarify the phases (stages) of the development of modern military conflicts. Using the adapted Methodology, a numerical experiment was conducted, which allowed: identify effective ways of interaction of the armed forces with NATO in modern conditions; clarify the phases (stages) of conflict development; to numerically determine the performance factors of the ways of interaction of the armed forces of NATO in modern conditions, depending on the phases (stages) of the development of the conflict; to numerically determine the performance factors of the ways the Ukrainian armed forces interact with NATO to resolve the conflict in the east ofUkraine. For the conflict in the east of Ukraine in modern conditions, except for the existing initiatives, there will be a new initiative “support for security and defense forces”. “підтримка сил безпеки і оборони”.