АНАЛІЗ ТА ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ РОЗВИТКУ АВІАТРАНСПОРТНОЇ ГАЛУЗІ УКРАЇНИ

Abstract

The development of the air transportation industry of Ukraine is studied. The main trends of international and domestic air transportation, differences in the dynamics of cargo and passenger air transportation and changes that occurred under the influence of economic and political factors, as well as those caused by the pandemic and military events are identified. The competitive position of Ukrainian and foreign airlines in the international air transportation market is analyzed. The main reasons for the weak development of domestic air transportation are identified. The structure and main models of Ukrainian airports are analyzed. The regression models of passenger and cargo traffic of air transport are built, determined by the influence of the main macroeconomic indicators, which can be used for strategic forecasting of the development of the air transport industry in the post-war period. The article describes the perspective models of development of airlines and airports in Ukraine. Tough competition will lead to the fact that Ukrainian airlines, if they continue to exist, are likely to move to the model of small “hybrid airlines” or become ACMI operators. Due to the lack of access to cheap financial resources, Ukrainian airlines will gradually be pushed out of the market by foreign competitors. By lowering barriers to entry, new small Ukrainian regional airlines will emerge in the regions, operating on secondary routes that are not of interest to foreign carriers. The air transportation industry will move from the Hub-and-Spoke network model to the Point-to-Point model. Airports will have low profitability due to significant price pressure from low-cost airlines, and significantly lower revenues from aviation and non-aviation activities. Such airports will need government support to ensure their operation. After the opening of the airspace, considerable efforts will have to be made to stimulate and stabilize the development of air transportation, in particular in the areas of regulatory and legal regulation, organizational and managerial support, fiscal and monetary incentives, investment and innovation, and workforce.