중미 글로벌-지역 이중 극체제로 본 북중관계

Abstract

This study aims to examine how China’s realization of polarity in international relations and its threat perception on the U.S. have affected China-North Korea relations in the post-Cold War era. Since the end of the Cold War, the world has formed a U.S.-led unipolar system, while East Asia has been a bipolar system between the U.S. and China. China has jumped on the U.S. bandwagon but confronted it when the U.S. has posed threats to East Asia where China's vital interests reside. When it has had cooperative relations with the U.S., China has kept a certain distance from North Korea, which is under international sanctions over its nuclear issue, while strengthening its relations with the DPRK when it has conflicted with the U.S. History has shown this pattern. Relations between China and North Korea, which had deteriorated since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea in 1992, normalized after China felt threatened by NATO’ military attack on Yugoslavia in 1999. Relations between the two countries, which had deteriorated following North Korea's first nuclear test in 2006, strengthened despite the DPRK's second nuclear test in 2009 as the South Korea-U.S. alliance strengthened after the Lee Myungbak administration took power. Worsened relations between China and the DPRK caused by North Korea's continued nuclear tests and missile provocations since Xi Jinping took power strengthened again when the U.S. began to balance against China in 2018. This pattern makes us predict how China-North Korea relations will be in the future. If conflict intensifies between the U.S. and China, China-North Korea relations will be strengthened. On the other hand, if U.S.-China relations turn to a cooperative stance, China-North Korea relations are likely to become estranged. It is predicted that conflictual relations between the U.S. and China would continue, and therefore, close relations between China and North Korea would persist for the time being.