К ВОПРОСУ О ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИЯ РИСКА ПОТЕРИ БЕРЕМЕННОСТИ В РАННИЕ СРОКИ

Abstract

This study was conducted to determine the risk factors and their prognostic significance as 
 predictors of early pregnancy loss. Materials and methods. Retrospective study examined 214 data patients: 
 social factors, information about obstetric and gynecological history, extragenital diseases, results of clinical 
 and laboratory, instrumental examinations, features and complications of a real pregnancy. To predict we used 
 Bayesian model with A. Wald analysis, calculating prognostic coefficients significant factors identified during 
 the study and their informativeness were assessed by E.V. Gubler and S. Kulbak methods. Predictive coeffi cients of aggressive and protective factors affecting the peculiarities of the course and termination of preg nancy. Study results. Retrospective review of medical records allowed determine 14 risk factors for early ges tational loss: the patient's age is 29 years or more, tobacco smoking, non-developing pregnancy, spontaneous 
 abortions and ectopic pregnancy in history, early loss in the unborn, inflammatory diseases of the genitals, 
 cytomegalovirus infection, one or more C-sections history, organ surgery
 abdominal cavity, obesity, uterine fibroids, planned in vitro fertilization. With taking into account the 
 identified factors, a prognostic model was compiled, which allows for 95% accurately calculate the prognosis 
 of the course of pregnancy. Based on the obtained values prognostic coefficients formed a table of pre-ravidar 
 assessment of the risk of loss in early dates of gestation. Conclusion. The study made it possible to identify 
 risk factors and calculate them prognostic significance in the realization of early pregnancy loss. Created the 
 prognostic table allows in the pregravidar period to formulate an accurate forecast in the ratio of early preg nancy losses and, if necessary, a rational pregravidar preparation.