베이지안 모델을 활용한 서울시 자치구별 범죄예측지도 연구

Abstract

The issue of police personnel in Korea has been continuously raised. Efforts are being made to this end in various ways, but the police are still suffering from manpower shortages and heavy work due to policy changes such as “Adjustment of Investigative Rights between the Police and the Prosecution”. In relation to efficient police activities, a notable measure is the use of crime map based on crime big data. This study examined crime maps used at home and abroad, predicted crime rates for each district in Seoul based on Bayesian model, and visualized them to implement crime maps for each district in Seoul for contributing efficient police patrol activities and crime prevention, and moreover to help Primary crime prevention of citizens.
 To achieve the research purpose, this study looked at crime maps used in the United Kingdom, United States, and Korea’s and how they were used. Furthermore, this study tried to predict crimes in Seoul by district using CCTV, drinking establishment, schools and foot traffic data. Finally, based on the predicted analysis values, visualization of crime map for each district in Seoul was implemented.
 Unlike overseas crime maps, crime maps currently used in Korea were somewhat closed way(only limited users can use it or the algorithm has not been made public). Based on literature review, this study attempted to implement crime map that can be disclosed to private citizens based on the Bayesian model which is rising in the field of criminal investigation. Accordingly, database was established by collecting CCTV, drinking establishment, schools and foot traffic data for each district in Seoul. The Bayesian model, which predicted crime occurrence using the collected data, showed an average accuracy of about 87% which is higher accuracy than other crime prediction program abroad. Finally, visualized as a crime map based on the analysis results.
 The active use of crime map is highly valuable. It can help police's manpower shortage and heavy work, moreover private citizens too. Currently, Korea has also introduced and started operating crime map, but due to police’s confidentiality, it is difficult for private citizens to feel the efficiency of crime map. Crime map can be more valuable depending on how it is used, so if the police actively release crime map to the public, will get a great response.