КОМПЛЕКСНА МОДЕЛЬ СИСТЕМНИХ ДОСЛІДЖЕНЬ ПРОБЛЕМ БЕЗПЕКИ ОБ`ЄКТІВ КРИТИЧНОЇ ІНФРАСТРУКТУРИ

Abstract

The development of methodological approaches to the solution of an understudied problem, namely to the systematic study of aspects of ensuring the safety of important critical infrastructure facilities is shown in the paper. According to the Law "On the Basics of National Security of Ukraine", the objects of critical infrastructure are: transport and communication; energy and energy supply; provision of housing and communal services; industry and scientific and technical activity in the military-industrial complex; dual purpose technologies; information technologies and information protection; use of subsoil; land on water resources; mineral resources; environmental protection, etc. A system of classifications of prognostic modeling methods has been developed in the form of a three-level structure: by forecasting methods and information bases; according to the material basis of the instrument for obtaining the final result; according to the classification scheme of the specified specific methods. The complex model of system research of critical infrastructure facilities security problems from the position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been developed. The mathematical apparatus of analysis and assessment of the level of national (military) security, including military-political, military-economic, military-political models of the state, is presented. The specific features of problem classes by direction, namely well and weakly structured problems, are determined. The use of game theory to compensate for statistical selection is proposed. The main methods of decision-making are given: the methods of utility theory (generalized criterion); the cumulative expected utility as a valid method of decision trees; the methods of prospect theory; the methods of inequality thresholds; the methods of analyzing hierarchies, that are based on a multi-criteria description of the problem; the heuristic methods. It’s shown that the most developed theoretical basis, that finds application in determining the security status of critical infrastructure objects and security in general, are expert methods or methods of multidimensional analysis with elements of taxonomy. However, these approaches assume the existence of reference objects or the scenario of the influence of factors on the final result imagined by experts. An important conclusion was made that the basis of the scientific contradiction is the need to create a sufficiently perfect mechanism for solving the problems of objectively justifying decisions in the military sphere under the conditions of significant limitations in the acquisition of biased data for the prevention of conflicts in the military sphere and the absence of finished scientific theory for determining the result of the complex impact of various factors.