ТРАНСФОРМАЦИИ ГЛОБАЛЬНОЙ МИГРАЦИИ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ

Abstract

Sharp and unpredictable shifts in population movements, imperfection and incompleteness of international migration statistics, regular revisions by the UN Population Division of previous estimates of the international migrant stock complicate assessing the current state and forecasting future developments in this field. Nevertheless, there are obvious changes in geography, dynamics, composition and forms of modern migration occurring in the context of the polycentric and, at the same time, transnational and increasingly interconnected world entering the period of globalization reformatting, economic turbulence and uncertainty, the growth of socio-political conflict, the establishment of postmodern social values and attitudes. These shifts outline the contours of a new model emerging in the global migration space. The territorial mobility of people is growing in the whole, but this process is multi-speed. The non-migration mobility is increasing noticeably. However, modern flows of long-term migrants are weakening, and the growth in their number is slowing. This indicates a decrease in migration activity. The role of settlement is likely to decline in the new migration paradigm. Migration is becoming increasingly fluid and incomplete. With the spread of temporary and circular movements occurring generally in developed regions, in the EU in particular, frontier and hybrid patterns of movements arise. They combine elements of short-term and long-term migration and those of non-migration mobility. The diversity of migrants and receiving population is growing. The development of these processes requires an improvement of migration statistics, as well as reforming the integration policies. A new geography of migration is being construed. It is characterized by the shift of human flows to the global South and their regionalization on the basis of integration platforms. The regionalization of movements in the South requires working-out and implementation of immigration and integration policies by developing states and the development of sub-global mechanisms for regulating human flows as well. Moreover, the architecture design of the global population movements’ governance should be adjusted to the emerging migration model. &nbsp