Особенности идентификации и экспресс-оценки рисков инвестиционных проектов в современных условиях

Abstract

Objective: When assessing the risks of an investment project, it is necessary to take into account the uniqueness of each project, which requires the search for completely new solutions, the application and combination of various tools and assessment methods for the effective implementation of the project. The objective is to develop and test an algorithm for express risk assessment of an investment project using an integral risk factor. In order to achieve this the following issues are considered: the development of the risk theory and the main stages of its development, the modern concept of risk and risk classification in the context of investment projects, modern methods for assessing the risks of investment projects and their problems. Next, the concept of an integral risk factor is introduced and an express assessment of risks of a local investment project is carried out using an integral risk factor. Methods: The classical methods of identifying and assessing project risks (the method of expert estimates, the Monte-Carlo simulation method), the comparative method, analysis, and synthesis are used in the study. Results: The basic characteristics of the concept of “risk” inherent in the modern understanding were formulated. A new concept of the integral risk factor and the method of its calculation were proposed. Alternative scenarios for the implementation of the investment project using the integral risk factor were developed. An algorithm for complex risk express assessment of an investment project on a multi-brand dealer auto center construction was developed by means of an integral risk factor and Monte-Carlo simulation method. Practical importance: The developed algorithm can be used by managers to identify and evaluate or carry out an express assessment of complex risks of investment projects in the process of operating real projects, as well as to provide background for developing new and more advanced methods of project risks assessment.