ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯ ДИНАМІКИ ТУРИСТИЧНИХ ПОТОКІВ УКРАЇНИ

Abstract

The article examines and analyzes the state and economic development of the tourist market of Ukraine. The tourism sector is one of the strategic sectors of the economy, through which further socio-economic development of the state takes place. The tourism industry is an important factor in improving the quality of life in Ukraine, creating additional jobs, replenishing the state's foreign exchange reserves and increasing its authority in the international arena. Economic processes in the tourism industry that change over time can be studied on the basis of linear and nonlinear Dynamic models. The article applies an economic and mathematical model of competition of the Lotki - Volterra type, which describes the dynamics of changes in market shares by types of tourism (inbound, outbound, domestic). The projected market share by type of tourism is calculated within the framework of the proposed model. Unlike classical econometric models of competition, the Lotka-Volterra economic model allows us to fully assess the dynamics of economic processes, achieve a state of equilibrium of the studied competitive systems, and theoretically predict and control the main parameters of the model. A mathematical dependence of the dynamics of changes in the income of tour operators and travel agents on the number of tourists is also constructed. In the course of the research, methods of statistical analysis, methods of economic and mathematical modeling were used to determine the share of the tourist market and its dynamics. As a result of the study, it was found that the rate of income change is most influenced by the number of incoming tourists. A decrease in the flow of domestic tourists has a negative impact on income growth. According to the constructed Lotkа-Volterra competitive model, there is a decrease in the share of incoming and domestic tourists. The development of inbound tourism, the share of which in Ukraine has remained the smallest since 2005, will significantly increase the income of tour operators and travel agencies. These dynamic models allow you to analyze processes in the tourism industry, perform forecast assessments, develop a strategy, make management decisions and carry out planning at various levels.