서울 주택소비심리와 대도시권 주택시장의 동태적 관계분석

Abstract

The aim of this study was to identify the dynamic relationship between housing consumer sentiment in Seoul and metropolitan housing market using the Granger causality analysis, and to investigate the factors affecting the housing consumer sentiment using VECM model. The analysis confirmed that the housing markets in both Seoul and metropolitan area have a significant impact on the sentiments of a housing consumer in Seoul. Specifically, the Seoul and the metropolitan housing markets were found to be responsible for significantly dampening the Seoul housing consumer sentiment in the early time, while the Seoul jeonse market was found to be responsible for worsening the housing consumer sentiment during the period. The impact of demand and supply factors on housing consumer sentiment in Seoul was generally insignificant. However, it was found that the supply factor described the housing consumer sentiment more as compared to the demand factors. The results of this study showed that the housing consumer sentiment in Seoul is influenced by the metropolitan housing market, and suggested that there is need to institutionalize the great-sphere housing policy in the pursuit of housing market policy in Seoul.