МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ОБСЯГУ ПРОДУКЦІЇ ДЛЯ ЗАДОВОЛЕННЯ ПОПИТУ ЗА ДОПОМОГОЮ ДИНАМІЧНОЇ МОДЕЛІ ЧАСТКИ РИНКУ ТА ІНТЕРВАЛЬНОЇ МОДЕЛІ РОЗМІРУ РИНКУ

Abstract

The mathematical model for analysis and forecasting company market share, the interval model for market size and company product volume estimation in view of the product utility function and the type of competitive interaction is described in the research paper. The model of the dependence of the market share dynamics on the company product utility change with time and the products of its main competitors determination of company product value, probability market size model is examined and transferred to interval model which allows to consider oscillatory nature of prices. It is shown that the proposed model allows to study and to analyse the dynamic of development and various strategies of the companies’ behaviour in the market. Analysis and modelling on historical data prove that the model gives sufficiently accurate results and an acceptable deviation. As a result, on the basis of the proposed model, the boundaries in which the size of the market will fluctuate were determined, and the company development dynamics are analysed in accordance with competitors’ development. It is important to note that the data considered take into account possible price fluctuations in a certain interval, as well as possible change in the competitive positions in the market. Based on the market share dynamics and the total market size, an interval was established for determining the volume of products that would satisfy the demand for the goods of all companies. An outstanding forecast volume of products that each enterprise must supply to the market to meet demand. For the scenario under consideration, an assumptions were made about a further strategy for the company's behaviour to preserve, as well as strengthen its competitive positions in the market. Thus, the work shows how, based on the dynamic model of the market share and the interval model of market size, which takes into account the fluctuating nature of prices and the possible change in the competitive position, the company can determine the direction of the commodity and marketing policy, using the utility function of the product, market share and interval estimation of market size.