ПЕРСПЕКТИВНЫЕ ЦЕНТРЫ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОГО РОСТА В ПРОСТРАНСТВЕННОМ РАЗВИТИИ РОССИИ: СООТВЕТСТВУЮТ ЛИ ЦИФРОВОМУ БУДУЩЕМУ?

Abstract

The list of promising centers of economic growth is analyzed according to the “Strategy for the spatial development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025”. The aim of the study was to test the correspondence between the centers of economic growth represented in the strategy and the growth poles of the future digital economy based on artificial intelligence. The theoretical basis of the study was the concept of “growth poles” by F. Perroux with subsequent extensions. To identify the growth poles of the digital economy, the author’s database on telecommunication lines of the Russian Federation and Rosstat data on the population of cities as of January 1, 2019 were used. The author’s algorithm for identifying digital urban agglomerations was used as the research method. It is proposed to identify the leading, driven and potential growth poles of the digital economy. According to the initial hypothesis of the study, all centers of economic growth presented in the strategy are promising, since they fully correspond to the growth poles of the digital economy. An alternative hypothesis of the study was the lack of correspondence between the growth centers in terms of strategy and the identified growth poles of the digital economy. Analysis of the signal delay value in fiber-optic communication lines between 1115 Russian cities made it possible to identify 43 digital urban agglomerations. They represented clusters of cities with ultra-low signal delay from agglomeration centers. These centers were seen as the leading growth poles for Russia’s digital economy. Comparing them with 95 centers of economic growth in terms of strategy made it possible to reject the initial hypothesis as erroneous and accept an alternative hypothesis. This allowed us to come to the conclusion that not all the growth centers listed in the strategy are promising for the development of the digital economy. The driven and potential growth poles of the digital economy are listed. The set of all kinds of growth poles also do not correspond to the set of growth centers by strategy. The ten most problematic centers of economic growth are analyzed. The research results can be used to develop a new strategy for the spatial development of Russia. Seven directions for further research are proposed