Концепція оцінки ергономічної стійкості транспортного потоку великих міст з урахуванням динамічності зміни впливових факторів

Abstract

The methodological approach of forecasting the congestion of the streets of large cities, taking into account the fluctuations in the density of traffic flows and the speed of movement of cars in the flow, received further development. The methodical approach takes into account fluctuations in the dynamics of the traffic flow in the form of changes in the acceleration of the movement of cars in the flow and fluctuations in changes in the infrastructure of the road environment, which is associated with the number of traffic lights, pedestrian crossings and the number of lanes for the movement of vehicles. Through modeling, it was found that increasing the acceleration values of cars in the stream significantly increases the range of robustness. At low values of acceleration of cars, the reserve of resistance to the formation of traffic jams decreases, which negatively affects the traffic flow, there is a probability of the formation of traffic jams. The presence of fluctuations in the density of the traffic flow and the speed of movement of cars in the flow, due to changes in the acceleration of cars, allows making adjustments to the value of the robustness criterion. Adjustments can be made for different clusters of the road network, for different times of the day, and take into account the period of fluctuations. The dependences of the change in the robustness range of the traffic flow upon changing the infrastructure of the road network are given. It has been established that increasing the number of lanes and simultaneously reducing the number of traffic lights and pedestrian crossings on the controlled cluster significantly increases the stability of the movement of vehicles in the flow. Conversely, reducing the number of lanes, increasing the number of traffic lights and pedestrian crossings on the controlled cluster significantly reduces the stability of the movement of vehicles in the flow. Adjustment of density and movement speed can be performed taking into account the amplitude of oscillations. The concept of modeling and forecasting the stability of traffic flows of large cities to the formation of traffic jams is formulated. The main components of the concept, according to which such an assessment is performed step by step, taking into account the dynamics of changes in influencing factors, are substantiated. The proposed concept differs from the known ones in that it takes into account fluctuations in traffic flow parameters - the density and speed of movement of vehicles over time. Such changes are characteristic of the city's road network during "peak hours".