유가 변동은 경제성장에 대해 비대칭적 효과를 갖는가?

Abstract

In this paper, We empirically analysis the impact of oil prices on the economic growth of Korea, China, and Japan in Northeast Asia. The analysis period used variables such as per capita GDP, international oil prices, real effective exchange rates, consumer price index, and total currency in the three countries from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The NARDL model proposed by Shin et al. (2014) was applied to analyze the effects of rising and falling oil prices. In this study, first, it was found that fluctuations in oil prices in all three countries affect economic growth. However, it was not statistically significant in the long run. Second, the impact of oil prices on economic growth in all three countries was found to be asymmetric. In the short term, the rise and fall of oil prices showed statistical significance in Korea, China and Japan. Third, the impact of oil prices in Korea and Japan is similar to the analysis results of previous studies analyzed in advanced countries (e.g., OECD countries). However, in the short term, the impact of oil price fluctuations on China has differentiated results from Japan and Korea. Each of the three countries’ error correction terms coefficients is statistically significant, which means that short-term economic growth is adjusted to a long-term equilibrium relationship at a certain rate for one year if any impact occurs in the system.