Геодемографическая классификация регионов Северо-Кавказского федерального округа

Abstract

Introduction. The dynamics of the vital movement of the population of the North Caucasus for 2005-2020 is investigated. Research methods and materials. Both traditional and the latest geographic research methods are used - comparative geographical, spatial analysis, statistical, GIS technologies, population surveys, etc. Research results. The conducted studies have shown that despite the apparent well-being, a tense demographic situation is developing in the North Caucasus. Favorable demographic results are obtained only at the expense of three subjects - Dagestan, Ingushetia and Chechnya. In other regions, narrowed and negative reproduction is observed. The natural increase is getting lower and lower. The small generation born in the 1990s reached the fertile age. COVID-19 restrictions and a crisis in the economy have led to an even greater decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality. The conducted geodemographic classification of the regions of the North Caucasus showed that the most favorable situation is observed in Ingushetia, the situation is slightly worse in Chechnya and Dagestan, narrowed reproduction in Kabardino-Balkaria and Karachay-Cherkessia and the most tense situation is in North Ossetia and the Stavropol Territory. Conclusion. To improve the situation, a differentiated approach is needed to different regions in the demographic sphere, the creation of new workplaces. The outflow of the able-bodied population from the regions of the North Caucasus leads to a violation of the population age composition and, thereby, undermines the fertility of the population. This leads to a decrease in the birth rate and, accordingly, natural increase. Resume. The article presents the results of studies of the natural movement of the population of Russia and the North Caucasus Federal District. At the same time, the multi-scale method of research and geodemographic classification was taken as the basis. It has been established that relatively favorable results on the scale of Russia were achieved in the North Caucasus Federal District, and on the scale of the North Caucasian Federal District - in Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan. It was determined that along with the traditional factors of mortality, the factor of infectious morbidity began to play a significant role. It is shown that at the same time, mortality in working age has increased. It was revealed that there is a significant territorial differentiation of the natural movement of the population both in Russia as a whole and in the North Caucasus Federal District. The results of the research can be useful in developing programs for further demographic development of the regions.