Ядерная программа Ирана – прошлое, настоящее и неопределенное будущее

Abstract

Over the past two decades, Iran’s nuclear program, its character and direction have been under the scrutiny of the international community. Announcing its plans for the development of nuclear energy, Iran initiated both work to create enterprises for the uranium enrichment and the construction of a heavy water reactor in Arak. However, already in the early 2000s, it was reported about Tehran’s failure to fulfil its obligations under the International Atomic Energy Agency Safeguards Agreement. This raised suspicions that the country was conducting covert nuclear activities aimed at creating nuclear weapons. The state of Iran’s nuclear program has become a matter of concern to the world community and, based on a number of resolutions adopted by the UN Security Council, the IAEA has made efforts to clarify the nature of the Iranian nuclear program and Iran’s implementation of the NPT safeguards agreement. It was found that until 2003, Iran had implemented a nuclear weapons program. The decision by Tehran to disclose all its nuclear activities as well as the efforts of the IAEA and multilateral diplomacy made it possible in 2015 to agree on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to resolve all questions related with the Iranian nuclear program and take measures to guarantee its exclusively peaceful nature. Since the beginning of the JCPOA implementation, Iran has strictly followed its obligations. However, the U.S.’ withdrawal from the Plan in May 2018, restoration and strengthening of their economic sanctions against Iran created a situation where Tehran, starting in July 2019, began to phase out its obligations under the JCPOA. At the same time, to date, Iran has been carrying out all its activities in close cooperation and under the constant supervision of the IAEA. The future of the Iranian nuclear program is difficult to predict, this will largely be determined by the ability of the remaining JCPOA participants to find and implement solutions which would suit all of them.