Аналіз критичних сценаріїв, пов’язаних із припиненням дії окремих міжнародних договорів у газовій галузі України

Abstract

At present, there is a need in formulating and studying the critical scenarios of development of the energy sectors of Ukraine, which can lead to a rapid increase in the dependence on foreign energy suppliers, significant social and economic damages, and even catastrophic consequences for our country. Analysis of international contracts in the gas sector currently in force has shown that there are two scenarios one of which is associated with the termination of transit of Russian gas through the territory of our country and the second with the complete cessation of gas deliveries from Russia to Ukrainian consumers, which can be critical for the gas supply system of our country. We have investigated how critical will be these scenarios for the gas industry of Ukraine. It has been shown that the scenario associated with the termination of transit of Russian gas through the territory of our country is critical because it will lead to a decrease in the efficiency of the Ukrainian gas transportation system and requires already today to begin taking measures for the mitigation of its negative influence. We have determined the index of ability of the existing gas infrastructure of Ukraine to satisfy gas demand in the case of violation of gas supply conditions (index “N-1”) for the winter 2016-2017. Poor values of this index show that the scenario involving a full cessation of the supply of Russian gas to Ukraine can be critical in the case of violation of gas supply from Slovakia or its taking from our largest underground storage under conditions of abnormally cold winter of 2016-2017.