Концептуально-аналитические подходы к возникновению потенциальных угроз в цифровой экономике

Abstract

The study’s relevance is determined by the significant impact that digitalization has on the economic and social activities of modern states, which engenders new risks and threats to the functioning of va­rious systems and institutions. Based on the evolutionary-institutional analysis and systems analysis methods, the study identifies the threats of digitalization and the associated macroeconomic risks and describes the current approaches to digital risk management. The evolution in the understanding of risk and contemporary approaches to risk assessment is traced in relation to business, social, economic, investment, military, and political threats. Among the critical risks of digitalization, an important place is occupied by cyber risks, which are part of the strategic risks of enterprises, credit risks and regulatory risks. These risks affect markets and create a systemic risk stemming from the possible damage to elements of the infrastructure and market. Technology-driven risks have a systemic character as they may affect more than one country, economic sector, as well as a wide range of natural, technological, and social systems. The study offers an analysis of digitalization risk assessment methods (STRIDE, CIA, OCTAVE) and provides an overview of the qualitative and quantitative methods used to assess digital threats. Modern approaches to cyber risk management include modeling threats and vulnerabilities. These methods may prove especially useful to identify, classify and prioritize threats and to develop selective risk reduction measures. The concepts of FinTech and Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) are discussed in relation to the associated risks to the stability of national and international financial systems. The study also considers the concept of e-government, the stages of the evolution of e-government characterized by different risks to systems of public administration.