Между войной и миром: мирные процессы и вооруженное насилие

Abstract

Armed violence does not end with the start of peace talks. It tends to go on, in different forms and with varying degree of intensity, during a peace process and becomes interconnected with it. The book explores interlinkages between, and mutual influence of, peace processes and armed violence in contemporary armed conflicts. On the basis of analysis of statistical data, it is shown that peace processes only take place in about a third of contemporary armed conflicts and peace agreements are not the dominant form of conflict outcome. A substantive definition of a “peace process” is formulated on the basis of its qualitative characteristics. The book goes beyond the traditional emphasis on violent threats to peace negotiations by select malicious “spoilers” to explore the adequacy of a peace process itself and its vulnerability to violence. It also focuses on ceasefires as a framework for violence control and for interconnection between peace process and violence, and a more frequent type of conflict outcome in the early 21st century than either peace agreements or military solutions. An original typology of ceasefires is suggested, according to which they are not only confined to a part or stage of a peace process, but can also serve as a part of war or a way to shape, rationalize, or even streamline a state of “no peace, no war”. A new typology of actors who use violence during peace process to influence or undermine negotiations is also formulated. Nuanced strategies are proposed for dealing with such actors depending on a type of actor. Special attention is paid to the specifics of, and lessons from, interrelated peace processes, ceasefires, and violence in the case of the Syria and Donbass conflicts. The book is intended for peace and conflict experts, diplomats, other negotiators and practitioners, international affairs and security analysts.