Методологічні підходи до оцінки впливу процесу цифровізації економіки на попит і пропозицію робочих місць

Abstract

The publication valuates the changes that are expected regarding the supply and demand of jobs in the national labor market under the conditions of digitalization of the economy. The contradictory forecast data and the reasons that cause them are determined. The necessity and possibility of carrying out forecast estimates of labor force supply and demand according to the scenarios of development of the national economy are substantiated. According to forecast estimates, changes in employment by certain types of economic activity in 2025-2030 according to the inertial and targeted scenarios are computed, the consequences of their implementation and the impact on the supply and demand of labor force are defined. The ratios of the demand and supply of labor force and the employed population in the labor market for 2025 and the excess number of employed population in different scenarios of economic development are determined. It is concluded that if the inertial scenario is implemented without accelerated digitalization, the supply of labor force will be 7% more than demand. With the implementation of modern digital and information-communication technologies, almost 29.1% of the potential supply of labor force may remain outside employment. Subject to significant economic growth, taking into account the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), without accelerated digitalization, the demand and supply of labor force will practically be balanced according to the results of computations. Taking into account the implementation of digital and information-communication technologies, the surplus of labor force among the employed can reach 20.9% of the total supply. It is noted that imbalance in the labor market, which arises under the conditions of the implementation of intensive digitalization processes, along with other social risks in the field of employment, will be accompanied by an increase in the volume of labor migration. Attention is focused on the assumption that without the introduction of modern information and digital technologies, Ukraine can remain on the sidelines of world economic and scientific-technological progress, while under such conditions the implementation of the target scenario will be practically impossible