ДЕМОГРАФІЧНА СИТУАЦІЯ В УКРАЇНІ ЯК ФАКТОР РОЗВИТКУ РИНКУ ПРАЦІ

Abstract

In the context of the increasing adverse impact of external and internal factors on the development of the country such as the globalization of the economy, trade and labor market, the consequences of the fourth industrial revolution Industry 4.0, the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and the increasing socio-economic instability in the country, there is an increasing relevance of monitoring key factors of the effective functioning of the labor market in Ukraine, one of which is the state of the demographic situation in the country. Today the demographic situation in Ukraine is deteriorating every day, which is associated with economic, social and political problems in the country. First of all, the main problems are a significant increase in mortality and a low birth rate. But in addition to these problems, the growth of labor migration, the outflow of talented youth abroad, military operations in the east of the country, the annexation of Crimea, etc., are also significant. The purpose of the article is to analyze the dynamics of the main indicators of demographic processes in Ukraine and their forecasting based on the construction of a system-dynamic model. The article studies the demographic situation in Ukraine, analyzes the dynamics of the current population, including urban and rural. A study of the natural and migration growth of the population of Ukraine for 1990-2020 was carried out. The analysis of the distribution of the resident population by age groups in 2020 was made. The paper presents the results of modeling the average number of the available population of Ukraine using system-dynamic modeling. The forecasted values of the main demographic indicators for 2021-2022 have been determined: the average number of the available population in the regions of Ukraine and in the country as a whole, the growth rates of these parameters, the general rates of divorce and marriage, the general rates of migration and natural growth. Areas with the most problematic demographic situation are highlighted. A number of measures are proposed in the field of state regulation of the demographic situation aimed at increasing the population of the country.