Циклічна складова розвитку світової торгівлі

Abstract

The paper examines the cyclical and structural changes in world trade that affect its development and dynamics. It is determined that each of the stages of development of international trade is characterized by certain factors and development trends; features that reflect the level of internationalization of production and the role of international trade in the development of national economies; priority methods of regulating foreign trade by most countries. The study of the dynamics of world trade since 1800, taking into account its general upward trend, has identified a certain cycle of its development, which at different times was caused by changes in the structure of productive forces, development of new technologies, actions and factors of political and military nature. The fluctuations obtained as a result of the study have different durations and reach the lowest points of fall and the highest points of growth of world trade at different intervals. The most stable in terms of frequency and amplitude of fluctuations in world trade are the periods from mid-1850 to the First World War and 1950-1974. The most critical is the period 1915-1938, for which cyclical fluctuations in world exports are characterized by the highest amplitude. Also, statistical analysis of the data allows to determine the cyclical development of the world economy and its synchronicity with the cyclical fluctuations of world trade with the definition of certain cycles equal to 15-18 years. The current stage is characterized by a slowdown in world export growth. In 2009, the decline in economic activity was the largest among all global recessions. The data show that trade is not even keeping pace with world production growth, and over the past eleven years its average rate has been 2.2% (with the exception of strong surges in 2010-2011) against 3.07% of world GDP growth. The lack of trade dynamism in the last ten years is explained by the weakness of aggregate demand, especially in the euro area. The slowdown in world trade is also linked to the completion of the integration of China and Central and Eastern Europe into the world trading system. The third explanation is the increasing appeal of countries around the world to protectionist measures in international trade in order to stabilize national economies. Many countries have temporarily abandoned normal trade conditions and opted for a more restrained format of mutual trade with other countries. Determining the prospects for the development of the world economy and international trade, WTO experts provide a range of forecast forecasts for 2020 - from 5% to 11% and from 8% to 20.4%, respectively.