Оценка риска совершения преступлений лицами, освобожденными из мест лишения свободы

Abstract

Introduction. While studying recidivism prediction, criminal risk assessment is considered in many countries a mandatory procedure. The paper presents the most widely known and frequently applied risk assessment tools. Special attention is paid to predicted risk assessment tools for individuals released in the Russian Federation and the Republic of Kazakhstan. Taking into account the emerging tradition of using these risk assessment tools for practical purposes and the opportunities for conducting relevant research, much attention is paid to reviewing the tools used abroad. The purpose of the study is to provide the theoretical grounds for recidivism risk assessment tools, as well as the analysis of foreign experience in application and verification of this tool. Research methods. The research uses general scientific methods: (analysis, synthesis, systematization, generalization, analogy), special methods: comparative (when studying tools for assessing the risk of recidivism), formal legal (for the study of normative legal acts). Results. The research demonstrates a wide range of approaches and patterns in the area of criminal behavior risk assessment. Criminal behavior risk assessment tools were classified, and they can be summarised in a historical perspective into four generations according to chronology. The first and least reliable approach is to assess the risk of recidivism based on the clinical opinion of professionals. At this stage the measurement was characterised by its subjectivity. The second generation was based on actuarial valuation using reliable statistical predictors and significance levels for recidivism. The third generation tended to combine risk factors based on the theory of static risk assessment. The fourth generation of tools is based on the understanding that risk should be assessed as a continuous and dynamic process related to both the risk itself and the needs and resources of the individual. This approach considers that offenders’ supervision in post-penitentiary probation is an effective means of successful risk assessment based on their individual psychological characteristics and resources.