تاثیر عدم قطعیت در برآورد پتانسیل خطر لرزه ای منطقه

Abstract

In this paper the effects of uncertainties in the estimation of seismic hazard parameters is considered. These uncertainties are the result of the intricacy of the matter, restriction in identifying the interfering factors and lack of ability in determining the effective elements. One of the methods in estimating the seismic hazard potential is probabilistic method. In this method with the hypothesis of an appropriate probable distribution for the site and distance; where the earthquake happens, from the considered site and by considering a probable time base distribution, we can determine the probability of various levels of a acceleration (or other seismic parameters). in present time, the most appropriate method for determining the seismic parameters is a method named maximum likelihood .Although the basic methodologies used in seismic hazard analysis are well established, but the complex process of earthquake occurrence in a region and uncertainty in hazard modeling based on probabilistic method have some problems such as Simplification in modeling(without theoretical and experimental evidence) and Qualification in data(data with different level of noise).In this article is tried to pay the most attention to the problems and uncertainties of this method.