ОЦЕНКА УРОВНЯ ОТДАЧИ ОТ МАСШТАБА ПРОИЗВОДСТВА В ЭКОНОМИКЕ РОССИИ

Abstract

The article examines the level of return on the scale of production in the economy of modern Russia. The basis of the research is the production function of the Russian economy, the process of constructing which begins with the creation of econometric models of time series of macroeconomic variables (such as GDP, the cost of fixed capital and living labor, the price of oil, etc.) included in the analyzed variants of the production function. At the same time, the hypothesis of cointegrationality of time series data is necessarily investigated. After testing the hypothesis of cointegrated time series, a specification of possible variants of statistical models of the production function is compiled. Then the statistical models are evaluated (usually by the least squares method) and their complete diagnostics is performed. The process of constructing the production function ex – post ends with forecasts and calculating their accuracy (usually relative errors). According to this method, two variants of the production function of the Russian economy were constructed, which successfully passed all diagnostic procedures. In the first version, the set of explanatory factors includes the index of scientific and technological progress (STP), in the second version this factor is absent. Both variants of the production function allow us to conclude that the economy of Russia has an increasing return on the scale of production. The level of return of the production function on the scale of production is proposed to call the elasticity of the value of the production function on the scale of production. For the production function of the Russian economy, this elasticity is approximately 2. It is remarkable that the main contribution to this elasticity is made by the amount of live labor in the Russian economy.