기후변화로 인한 도시 야생조류 종 풍부도 변화와 도시녹지의 중요성

Abstract

Climate change has affected wildlife habitat and biodiversity. Birds play an important role in the biodiversity of urban areas and their habitat is also affected by climate change. This study predicted bird species richness (BSR) in the 2050s under two climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 4.5 and 8.5) in Seoul, South Korea. We selected 11 common bird species to represent bird biodiversity in the city and calculated BSR by analyzing potential habitat. The results of potential habitat analysis showed that the relative importance of surrounding green area ratio was 41%. Among climate factors, relative importance of accumulated rainfall and mean daily maximum temperature during the breeding season were 26% and 10%, respectively. This importance of climate factors will affect future BSR. The region with the highest BSR will be reduced from 27% to 3% in the 2050s under RCP 4.5 and to 1% under RCP 8.5. The change in maximum air temperature during the breeding season was an important factor in future BSR decrease in Seoul. The results indicate the importance of urban parks and green spaces for maintaining urban biodiversity. We identified important green spaces located in areas with high BSR. These important green spaces should be managed and conserved to prevent degradation of biodiversity in the future.